Monday, October 31, 2011

Halftime Stat Time

BTFF LEAGUE STAT-TACULAR
(Boo!)
As we celebrate this fructose-filled halloween with our families over the weekend I thought I owe it to you guys to give a little bit more.  And what better way to celebrate this pagan holiday than blowing up this blog with metrics and showing you some halloween costumes along the way...

89%
The percentage of guys that go to NFL games looking like idiots on halloween.
5 to 1
Odds of winning a costume party dressed like this.
8 or <
Pieces of candy this kid can take at every house and get away with
The end of week seven was the halfway point of our regular season, and were starting to have enough data to start picking up on some trends.  All of these stats are accounting through the completion of week 7 and are only weeks 1-7.  Some mean nothing, some mean a lot.


Strength of Schedule
Opponents points per game
  1. Donkey Power - 101.1
  2. Biggest Fumblers - 95.3
  3. Suck 4 Luck - 93.6
  4. FormerlyKnownAsFavre - 93.1
  5. Wright On - 92.6
  6. RIP Al Davis - 90.9
  7. Hunk Hoisters - 90.1
  8. BigTime Johnson - 88.6
  9. Philly's ConVicks - 87.7
  10. My Team - - 83.0
Margin of Victory
Average score in wins.  Number of wins in parenthesis.
  1. Hunk Hoisters = 30.8 (6)
  2. Donkey Power = 30.75 (4)
  3. BigTime Johnson = 24 (3)
  4. RIP Al Davis = 23.6 (5)
  5. Biggest Fumblers = 20 (3)
  6. Philly's ConVicks = 20 (2)
  7. Suck 4 Luck = 19 (1)
  8. My Team - = 13 (5)
  9. FormerlyKnownAsFavre = 11.5 (2)
  10. Wright On = 2 (1)
Margin of Defeat
Average score in losses.  Number of losses in parenthesis.

  1. BigTime Johnson = 6.6 (3)
  2. Hunk Hoisters = 11 (1)
  3. Philly's ConVicks = 11.4 (5)
  4. Biggest Fumblers = 20.3 (3)
  5. Suck 4 Luck = 20.8 (6)
  6. Wright On = 22 (6)
  7. FormerlyKnownAsFavre = 29.5 (4)
  8. RIP Al Davis = 41 (1)
  9. Donkey Power = 46.3 (3)
  10. My Team - = n/a (0)
Superstar Performances
Individual performances over 30 points.  Owner & week.
  1. Aaron Rodgers = 45 (Donkey Power, w4)
  2. Arian Foster = 40 (Hunk Hoisters, w7)
  3. Wes Welker = 34 (BT Johnson, w3)
  4. Tom Brady = 34 (Suck 4 Luck, w1)
  5. Drew Brees = 33 (Hunk Hoisters, w7)
  6. Miles Austin = 32 (FKA Favre, w2)
  7. Beanie Wells = 31 (Fumblers, w4)
  8. Cam Newton = 31 (The -, w4)
Top Scores of the Year
Top ten weekly team scores. Week achieved in parenthesis.
  1. Hunk Hoisters = 147 (w7)
  2. Hunk Hoisters = 134 (w3)
  3. BigTime Johnson = 130 (w1)
  4. My Team - = 129 (w2)
  5. Donkey Power = 127 = (w4)
  6. Donkey Power = 118 = (w2)
  7. FormerlyKnownAsFavre = 115 (w5)
  8. RIP Al Davis = 114 (w5)
  9. Hunk Hoisters = 114 (w2)
  10. RIP Al Davis = 112 (w1/2)
Quarterback Play
Average weekly score at starting QB position. Number of QBs started in parenthesis.
  1. Donkey Power = 26 (1)
  2. Philly's ConVicks = 21 (2)
  3. Hunk Hoisters = 19.6 (3)
  4. My Team - = 19.3 (2)
  5. Suck for Luck = 17.3 (3)
  6. FormerlyKnownAsFavre = 15.6 (1)
  7. Biggest Fumblers = 15.6 (1)
  8. RIP Al Davis = 15.1 (2)
  9. Wright On = 14.6 (3)
  10. BT Johnson = 13.7 (2)

Runningback Play
Average weekly score at starting RB positions.  Raw-7 week total in parenthesis.
  1. RIP Al Davis = 35.3 (247pts)
  2. Fumblers = 31.3 (219)
  3. Hunk Hoisters = 27.3 (191)
  4. My Team - = 24.0 (168)
  5. Suck 4 Luck = 22.7 (159)
  6. Philly's ConVicks = 22.4 (157)
  7. BigTime Johnson = 22.1 (155)
  8. Donkey Power = 21.7 (152)
  9. Wright On = 14.1 (99)
  10. FKA Favre = 13.6 (95)
Wide Receiver Play
Average weekly score at starting WR positions.  Raw 7-week total in parenthesis.
  1. Hunk Hoisters = 44.1 (309)
  2. BigTime Johnson = 31.7 (222)
  3. FKA Favre = 29.6 (207)
  4. Wright On = 29.3 (205)
  5. Donkey Power = 25.3 (177)
  6. My Team - = 23.9 (167)
  7. RIP Al Davis = 23.1 (162)
  8. Fumblers = 20.0 (140)
  9. Suck 4 Luck = 18.9 (132)
  10. Philly's ConVicks = 16.9 (118)

Sadly i've spent too much time on this so I'll spare you the DEF/K/TE statistics, but the positional stats were more illuminating than I had imagined.  They more or less explain the standings right now.  I'll probably do another one of these after week 14 if there is still a demand for it.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Week 8 Preview

My two cents:
.01¢) Bye weeks are killers and it showed last week for us with an 80.3 scoring average.  In addition, only two teams scored over 81 points.  Don't aim for 100 this week, you'll probably be disappointed.  Aim for 90.
    
.02¢) Trivia time: Which team is sixth in the league in scoring yet through seven weeks hasn't sustained a loss?  Heheh thats right.  We'll see if 'the minus' can wiggle another victory from the clutches of defeat against the excellent Donkey Power.


I apologize for not posting this until Sunday morning.  Since most of you won't have time to read this before the games anyway I'll keep it short and just get my picks in.  I'm spending the extra time working on an extra that I plan on having up Monday morning.

This weeks winners 
  • Hunk Hoisters (over Suck for Luck)
Big guns Andre Johnson (hamstring) and Michael Turner (bye) will both be out this week for Team Suck.  Bernard Scott is a big unknown and could be a huge x factor for team Suck if he's able to have a big day.  If Flacco can't succeed against Arizona then he's probably not worth owning.  Team Hunk's Foster and MJD go up against stout run defenses, but otherwise have favorable match ups.      
  • Philly's ConVicks (over FormerlyKnownAsFavre)
Call this my lock-of-the-week.  The ConVicks are primed for triple digits and have great defensive matchups this week.  The ConVicks' newest quarterback should be tested against Detroit, but Tim Tebow should survive the lions den.  Team Favre might as well start Brett Favre for this one.
  • The Biggest Fumblers (over Wright On)
You heard it here first. Antonio Brown blows up in week 8.
I really like the lineup Team Wright has put together this week.  At first glance I was ready to make him the victor too, but Brady has a tough matchup in Pittsburg.  Dez Bryant should also see tough coverage.  Schaub has a tough matchup of his own but the other 8 starters seem to have very favorable matchups.  Antonio Brown will have his second straight week of 100 yards receiving and the Fumblers win in a shootout.

  • RIP Al Davis (over BigTime Johnson)
This one could go down to Phillip River's performance on Monday night.  3 very strong receivers will be lining up for Johnson.  With those 3 and Rice he will make it close.  If Rivers can near 20, Johnson can take this thing.  McCoy is back for team RIP, but now Forte has a bye.  Serious playoff implications here.


    My Team -           vs.         Donkey Power


 
4-3 Donkey Power takes on the undefeated My Team - in the week 8 Game of the week.  Donkey should be right in striking distance of a playoff spot with a win here.  The minus won a 129-118 barn-burner the last time these two met up in week two.  Donkey takes a serious hit this week with the Packers on bye.  He'll lose Jordy Nelson, the packers D/ST and the fantasy giant, Aaron Rodgers. 

Position Advantage:
QB: My Team -
RB: My Team -
WR: Donkey Power
TE: Donkey Power
K/Def: Donkey Power

Prediction: My Team -
Donkey Power is missing too much.  This is the week the minus mans up and puts up a real total worthy of a win.  
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Don't forget that our rule change allows for Sunday morning (11am) pickups.  Just remember to start them since they go automatically go to your bench from free agency.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

W8 Recap - Total Equality

Action Jackson

Rams RB Steven Jackson goes for 30pts Sunday.  

 It was another rough scoring week with the byes, but for the first time this season and perhaps the first time in big time fantasy football league history, our scoring system provided complete equity.
The lowest five scores of the week received losses and the top five point scorers all got wins.  I'm not for a point only league, but this week was an example of a perfect storm where you get the rush and competition of matching up against another team and the fairness of the best teams getting wins.  Being the savvy sabremetrician* I am lately, I ran the numbers on what our records would be using that system.  The top five weekly scores get a win, the other five lose.
  • 8-0 Hunk Hoisters
  • 6-2 RIP Al Davis
  • 6-2 Fumblers
  • 5-3 My Team -
  • 5-3 Donkey Power
  • 4-4 BigTime Johnson
  • 3-5 Philly's ConVicks
  • 1-7 FKA Favre
  • 1-7 Suck for Luck
  • 1-7 Wright On
I dont think fantasy football would be as fun without head-to-head matchups.  But it is interesting to see what would change.


WEEK 8: Awards
Owner of the week: RIP Al Davis (106pts)
Its tough to remember with all these fancy name-changes that've been going on lately, but I believe RIP Al Davis is undefeated since the name change three weeks ago.  RIP was awesome this week, getting 48 points from New York Giants.  There also seems to be a new fad spreading, either that or RIP is getting a little cocky.  Last week RIP pulls the win without a wide receiver.  This week he decides to embrace the strategy and go without a defense.  ..naturally, he wins Owner of the week.  Dave (FKA Favre) tried it this week, starting only 6 players and he got hammered.  So just remember it doesn't work for everybody and Dave, if you're reading: I'm very disappointed.  Are you trying to get in on the Andrew Luck action too?!?

Player of the week: LeSean McCoy, 31pts (RIP Al Davis)
The man with four capital letters had a capital evening in Philadelphia as the Eagles hosted the Cowboys on Sunday night football.  McCoy made the NFLs #1 rushing defense look bad with big run after big run.  He finished with a career high 185 yards.  
[Honorable Mention: Steven Jackson, 30pts]
After a previous high of 12 points this season, Steven Jackson made owners believe again on Sunday in St. Louis. 

Double-take Award: Nate Washington, 15pts (Philly's ConVicks)
The top ten was nothing but stars this week.  Washington did have a very helpful day for fantasy owners though.  Nate had his seconds receiving touchdown of the year, but was able to add a rushing touchdown as well. 
[Honorable Mention: Victor Cruz, 15pts]

Coaching move of the week: The Biggest Fumblers
Claimed Antonio Brown from free agency for $0 when he needed a bye week receiver.  What could Brown do for Caleb? 12 points.  Not too shabby for $0.       

Special Teams Award: Lions D, 25pts (My Team -)
Detroit shut Tim Tebow and company down this weekend and doing it earned 25 big ones.  The Lions have been very respectable all season, but this signature performance leapfrogs them to the BTFF's #1 defense. 
[Honorable Mention: Bengals D, 22pts] 

The Weekly Haha Award: Chris Johnson, 4pts (WO)

The second overall pick in our league has officially reached rock bottom.  Johnson, who was so dominant over the past two seasons, is averaging 6.7 points a week and failed to have a respectable game against the Colts.  The great CJ2K is now officially changing nicknames to CJ2YPC. 
[Dishonorable Mention: Wes Welker, 3pts]

I've wanted to get some other people's 'articles' up on the blog this year and it sounds like we may be able to do that in the next few days.  If you have anything fun you want posted on here (no standards) send it my way at lparkerh@gmail.com.  
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*I just checked the dictionary and thats not a word at all

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Weekly Recap (w6)

Simply Ahmazing

Giants tailback Ahmad Bradshaw racks up 3 TDs Sunday 

Another week, another evasive maneuver for the undefeated Minus.  In week one it was an 87-87 tie.  In week 3, it was a 73-72 victory over the winless Wright On.  This week it was more of the same with an impressive 75-74 blowout over the newly dubbed "RIP Al Davis."  I should really start charging for name changes.  Sheesh.  In an equally anticipated matchup, Troy showed his total commitment to suckiness as team Wright On earned his first victory of the year in a matchup that had all the excitement of a colonoscopy.  Team Suck for Luck now has the upper hand on employing their namesake next season and with the loss has taken the banner of this year's Clorox Toilet Bowl Champion.  The Hunk Hoisters defeated the ConVicks in a high scoring affair, and the Biggest Fumblers picked up a game on Johnson 91-85.  Donkey Power may be the hottest team in the league as he improves his winning streak.  After loosing back-to-back games to start the season, DP is now 4-2.


WEEK 6: Awards
Owner of the week: The Hunk Hoisters (105pts)
In another week with byes, there were only 2 teams hitting triple digits and the Hunk Hoister's 105 was at the top.  Hunk has scored 100+ points in 5 of 6 weeks and is now in sole possession of second place.   

Player of the week: Ahmad Bradshaw, 30pts (ConVicks)
Over 100 yards and three 1-yard touchdown runs were nearly enough to give Ben the victory this week.  Bradshaw's 30 points moves him into the top ten in runningbacks for the season.
[Honorable Mention: Michael Turner, 25pts]
Turner clearly doesn't understand the philosophy that team Suck for Luck is trying to instill.  If Troy is as good an owner as I think he is, Turner will be properly reprimanded and score 8 this week.

Double-take Award: Rashard Mendenhall, 20pts (Donkey Power)
Not a lot of scoring this week meant not a lot of overachievers.  We'll just call this a redemption week for mendenhall as he finally plays like his owners have expected.  For now, Mendenhall has reestablished some credibility.  I don't even think I have an honorable mention in this category this week, unless you count some dude named Naaman Roosevelt who scored 12 points for Buffalo.  I think he deserves a double-take award just for being employed by the NFL
[Honorable Mention: , pts]

Coaching move of the week: The Biggest Fumblers
For starting the Bears D over Pittsburg.  The move gave him an extra 6 points and he wonby 6. (91-85.)      

Special Teams Award: Jets D, 21pts (ConVicks)
I had the unmistakable pleasure of playing the NY Jets Defense this week.  Darrell Revis had at least 10 of these points by himself and was an absolute beast that terrorized Matt More and the Dolphins offense.  
[Honorable Mention: Billy Cundiff, 20 pts] 
In his quest to play for every team in the NFL, former bulldog Billy Cundiff went 5 for 5 on field goals this week, this time for the Baltimore Ravens.  Cundiff labeled himself "disapointed" after the NFL trade deadline came and gone without any action for Billy. Go Drake!

The Weekly Haha Award: Jermichael Finley, 2pts (Hunk Hoisters)
Finley has been awesome at times this year, but has also had plenty of flops among various weeks.  This was one of the later, as Finley was barely a factor in a game where Aaron Rodgers lit up the field.
[Dishonorable Mention: Roddy White 2pts]
==========================
I haven't made a trade in almost ten days and I'm suffering withdraw.  ..maybe a quarterback this time.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Week 6 Preview

My two cents:
.01¢) Troy's Team Suck for Luck has now broken the all-time league record for name changes in a season.  This breaks the previous high of 2, set by everyone else.  What can you do with 3 name changes that you can't do with 2? We're still waiting for comment.  I've got a pretty good one I think he could use for his next name, but we probably shouldn't give him anymore ideas.
    
.02¢) Dave (FormerlyKnownAsFavre) was predicted by ESPN to lose last week by 44 points, then went on to beat me  by double digits.  Logically, I filed a formal complain with ESPN and specifically asked for a human being to respond to it.  Like a kid in December, i'm eagerly awaiting a reply.  Maybe they'll reverse the outcome.  I'll keep everyone filled in.

.03¢) (bonus cent) The biggest Brett Favre fan I know is Dave, the owner of Team Favre.  And as a good Favre fan should, he would always use his first or 2nd round pick on Favre to ensure that no one else took him.  This year Favre may be down, but he is certainly not out.


In fact, as you can see from a quick player search, the ol' gunslinger is still available for pickup (gasp).  I say this not to start mob panic and rioting as we all throw hundreds of FAAB dollars into an unprecedented bidding war, but to draw your attention to his ownership percentages.  0.6% of fantasy players own #4 right now.  Man, there's even some extra hardcore nerds that are STARTING Favre right now.  Thats right Dave, 0.3% of America is starting Brett Favre on their fantasy team... and you're not one of them!  As your friend and Favre-fanatic accountability partner, I'm telling you Favre should be owned in the BIG TIME come tomorrow morning.  Oh, and I noticed he's got a bye this week, so don't go crazy and start him or anything. 

This weeks winners 
  • Hunk Hoisters (over ConVicks)
I anticipate the newly acquired Daniel Thomas and Jimmy Graham suiting up for the ConVicks.  Just a word of advice, when your opponent only has 1 active runningback, don't trade him one of yours.  Graham has a great shot for a third straight 100 yard week.  Brees & Bradshaw alone are expected to put up 41 ConVick points.  The Hunk Hoisters still have some great backs and receivers who can really explode, but many go up against tough defenses.  If Brees can have a special day the ConVicks have a great chance. 
  • The Biggest Fumblers (over Big Time Johnson)
Johnson has his hands tied this week with V-Jax and Rivers on the bye.  Andy Dalton will be at the helm with only Ray Rice and Wes Welker to hold down the fort.  If I was Ryan, I'd be hoping for about 4 Dalton-Green touchdown throws.  The Fumblers have few bye issues to deal with and Nicks could have his best week of the season here.  Fumbler runningbacks will be beating the ConVicks black and purple after this one.
  • Donkey Power (over Formerly Known as Favre)
This one may be extremely close, Miles Austin and Roddy White should combine for more than 30 and no one can forget what Vick did last time he faced the Redskins.  Rodgers could have an even better day against the Rams however, and the Packers D should put up some pretty digits also.  Donkey also has the Tight End advantage with Witten over Clark and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is questionable for this game.




    My Team -           vs.         Point Machine

 

The second place Point Machine will take a shot at the league's last undefeated in the Game of the Week.  The stage is set as both teams have little bye worries and are at full power to go to battle.  Point Machine will start the streaking Eli Manning at QB over Tony Romo, with McCoy and Forte at Runningback.  Jennings is the top wideout with fellow Eli's fellow Giants targets Manningham and Cruz at 2 and 3.  If Eli has a good day, it might be over for the minus.  Team minus will have the Carolinian rookie sensation Cam Newton under center and statistically the best back in the league: Fred Jackson.  I also think this is the week Peyton Hillis puts his contract gripes behind him and starts showing some 2010 style hard-nosed running.  This game is tough to predict, and I think we'll know the winner by 3pm central time Sunday.  

Position Advantage:
QB: My Team -
RB: Point Machine
WR: Point Machine
TE: My Team -
K/Def: My Team -

Prediction: Point Machine
Eli shares the love with Super Mario and V-Cruz, and the Point Machine moves into first place.

I'm just being told there's one matchup left this week:

Thats right everyone!! Now that we have the Game of the Week out of the way, its time for the Game of the year!  NO.  The game of the decade!!!   Brought to you by the good people at Clorox (thats right, we got a sponsor), Its the battle of the winless wonders, the collision of the cellar dwellars, the suck for Luck sweepstakes, its the 2011 Clorox Toilet Bowl!!

Team Suck for Luck
     To ensure suckiness, team SFL scheduled byes for three of his top players.  Andre Johnson is injured, Flacco plays for a team that never passes, Steven Jackson has been injured all year, and Brett Favre thinks Hines Ward should retire.

Team Wright On  
     In an attempt at even more suckiness, team WO scheduled FIVE byes for his players including his second best player Chris Johnson.  4 of his 6 runningbacks will be out this week, Knowshon Moreno has been the worst pick in the draft and Jacoby Ford is the fastest man alive who's never been told the rules of football.

And the frontrunner for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and the 2011 Clorox Toilet Bowl winner will be:


TEAM WRIGHT ON!!!

Thats right Casey, despite Troy's moves change his name to his mission statement and draft old-man-superteam Hines Ward and Donovan McNabb, YOU have outdone him.  Brady may throw a few touchdowns here and there, but out of your 5 guys at runningback and receiver, you might actually score less than 20 points.  Its ashame you two can't go on to 0-14 together, but math simply won't have it.  To clarify, I think Team Suck for Luck outscores Wright On this week.  Personally though, I'm pulling for a tie.  Oh man would that be awesome.  
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A lot more byes to deal with this week, so good luck plugging the holes.  The good news is if you can put up 90 you've got a good chance.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Weekly Recap (w5)

Beast from the East

Guess who's the #1 runningback in fantasyland?

Week 5 is complete and we have whittled the undefeateds down to one.  "My team -" now stands alone atop first place in the BIG TIME after a 106-93 defeat of the Biggest Fumblers.  A massive part of "the minus"'s success this season has been the dominant Buffalo Bills runningback Fred Jackson.  75 players were chosen ahead of Jackson in our September draft, but the FJ Cruiser has now passed Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden as tops at his position.     


WEEK 5: Awards
Owner of the week: FormerlyKnownAsFavre (115pts)


The owner formerly known as Favre was too good for the previously undefeated Hunk Hoisters after getting big games from Vick, the law firm and stupid Pierre Garcon.  Clearly Curtis Painter has Garcon on his fantasy team, but someone needs to tell him that throwing to somebody else and winning one of his actual games might benefit his career a little more.  The genius that is ESPN was exactly 55 points off on their prediction of this game.  Dave is back into the playoff fight at 2-2-1.   

Player of the week: Adrian Peterson, 30pts (Fumblers)
It was almost as if Adrian was toying with us through the first few weeks of the season.  He played just well enough to validate his first round status, but wasn't putting up special numbers.  That all changed against the Cards this weekend, as Adrian Peterson shredded Arizona for 3 touchdowns and 28 of his 30 points in the first quarter.  What could this guy do if he tried to score fantasy points?? I shudder at the thought.  
[Honorable Mention: Ben Roethlisberger aka "Big Benny B", 27pts]
Ben seemed to prefer Hines 57 on his Roethlisberger this week with 2 of his 5 TD passes going to Hines Ward.
2nd Honorable Mention: Dwayne Bowe, 24pts.
You all should NFL.com or youtube Dwayne Bowe's TD catch if you haven't seen it.  There has been better catches; but not many of them.


Double-take Award: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 26pts (FormerlyKnownAsFavre)
First it was Danny Woodhead, then it was Stevan Ridley.  Many have threatened Green-Ellis' starting role this season, but Bellichick showed confidence in his started giving him the ball 27 times on the ground.  I'll have to admit, I was worried about his role on the offense, but he looked like the top-12 back he was drafted as he tore up the Jets interior defense.
[Honorable Mention: Pierre Garcon, 24pts]

Coaching move of the week: My Team -
"The minus" drafted the 3.9%-owned Steve Breaston and has stuck with him since.  Despite averaging 4 points through the first four weeks, Rick started him versus Indianapolis and was rewarded with 17 points in a week he won by 14.      

Special Teams Award: Sebastian Janikowski, 20pts (Point Machine)
You can't stop him you can only hope to falsely imprison him.  Janikowski has a serious leg and has hit 11 of 12 field goals this season including three 50-yarders on Sunday.  Fortunately for point machine, it doesn't appear Janikowski will serve any suspension time after he was charged with misdememeanor battery and false imprisonment of a woman back in September.
[Honorable Mention: Mason Crosby, 15 pts]

The many faces of Sebastian Janikowski...
No one listens when Janikowski yells

Rumor has it, even the punter beat him up once.

Janikoswki also thinks that if he has 2 bars on his helmet instead of 1, people will think that he's a legitimate position player.

"Gosh I'm beautiful."
The Weekly Haha Award: Darren McFadden, 6pts (Fumblers)
McFadden was the #1 runningback going into the week and ran into a good Texan run defense.  Another performance I wouldn't describe as a choke, but the Fumblers could have used more from him in a close matchup with the minus.
[Dishonorable Mention: Dallas Clark, Mike Williams 0pts]
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Theres a new king-of-the-mountain now.  Lets all go after him in week 6!